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The fourth day of the strategy survey: the supply and demand situation in Shandong is relatively good
Strategy: Chen Jie
Today we surveyed a large steel company, a large aluminum company and a large textile fabric company in Shandong. From the perspective of strategic researchers, our feelings are:
1. The market demand situation reflected by the iron and steel enterprises in Shandong is also very good. There is basically no room for supply and expansion, because the resumption of production has resumed. The steel enterprises reflected that the demand recovery after the Spring Festival was significantly better than in previous years. At present, the company is producing at full capacity for 24 hours, and the demand for sheet and rebar is very good. When we asked if there was a problem with the resumption of production of small steel enterprises, the company said that the resumption of production in Shandong Province had already resumed production. The reason for not resuming production was because the production capacity could not be restored.
2 , finally found a fresh "de-capacity" case - the steel company's "de-capacity" this year involves real equipment demolition and a large number of personnel placement issues, the implementation is worthy of attention. The capacity of the iron and steel enterprise in Jinan City will be shut down in this year, and the equipment will be directly dismantled (all of which are in line with the requirements of quality, safety and environmental protection). The personnel resettlement caused by the shutdown of production capacity or internal circulation Resolved by means of internal retreat. The company reflects the current resistance of internal employees, and it is recommended to pay close attention to the implementation progress.
3 , electrolytic aluminum enterprises reflect that they are currently in full production, the whole industry is no longer new capacity, but did not see the closure of the stock capacity. The company is the industry leader, demand has not been a problem, and it has been in full production since last year. According to the company's report, the national electrolytic aluminum has not approved new production capacity. In the future, it can only replace capacity at the most, but at the same time, it has not seen the “de-capacity†action on the stock enterprises in the industry.
4. Electrolytic aluminum enterprises using self-supplied power plants have been able to feel the pressure of rising coal prices. The electrolytic aluminum enterprise uses its own power plant to generate electricity. The cost per kilowatt hour has been raised from 0.16 yuan to 0.26 yuan, so the production cost has increased by 1,300 yuan / ton (the total production cost of ton of aluminum is about 7,500 yuan, so the cost increase is close to 20%) ).
5. Textile companies have yet to feel the devaluation of the RMB depreciation on exports, as overseas demand is generally weak. The textile company’s export volume last year was slightly reduced, and recently it was the off-season, and it did not feel the recovery of exports. The company said that the devaluation has little effect on their export incentives, because customers are not too sensitive to the price, the decline in sales is mainly due to the overall weakness of the overseas market, on the other hand, the competitive pressure from Southeast Asia and India is growing.
6. The company generally reflects that the bank's attitude towards them has improved, the credit line is full, and the benchmark interest rate or even the floating interest rate is implemented. The steel, coal and cement companies we have recently investigated generally reflect that the banks have turned their attitudes toward them in the near future, and the credit line is basically incomplete. The interest rate is generally the benchmark interest rate, and even the lowest can be lowered by 10%.
A large steel company in Shandong (March 23 morning)
Steel: Chen Yu
1 , demand:
In the short term, after comparing the 2017 Spring Festival with the historical period, our most direct feeling is that the demand has obviously improved. We have been selling by sales, no orders, no orders. The improvement is mainly reflected in the fact that the order is more abundant.
In the long run, Shandong Province is a major economic province and a major manufacturing province. The large steel industry for home appliances, machinery manufacturing, ships, construction, etc. has an important position in the country, and the demand for steel products is large; the total steel output cannot To meet market demand, it is a rare province of net steel consumption in China. The sales of steel enterprises in our province are mainly based on the provincial market, and some may flow into Jiangsu and other places, but relatively few. Shipbuilding boards, petroleum pipelines, pressure vessel panels, home appliance panels, automotive panels, container panels, high-end bearing steels, gear steels, and die steels are not yet able to meet the needs of the provincial market.
2 , production:
The company's current production equipment is in full production, and the output in 2016 is about 9 points higher than the average in 2015. In 2016, the national crude steel output was 80,836,700 tons, an increase of 4,450,700 tons compared with 2015. Our company's output growth is faster than the whole country. At present, the production of the company is relatively stable, the supply is sufficient, the price is relatively firm, and the situation is not bad.
3. Understanding of production capacity:
The concept of steel production capacity is unclear, and the caliber is relatively broad and inaccurate.
Our understanding is: the existing capacity data may be too large. The first point: the capacity data is only the data that is adjusted and not adjusted. The second point is that in the statistics, the enterprise may evade the risk of being eliminated. Data on overcapacity, such as the state's request to shut down the blast furnace below 450 cubic meters, the company may report the blast furnace below 450 cubic meters to a 500 cubic meter blast furnace; third, if the capacity statistics are based on the designed capacity, this capacity Failure to consider factors such as maintenance will result in large data.
The price of high grade mines can be tracked. At present, the profitability of steel companies is so good. If the capacity for resumption of production under these conditions is already dead capacity, and under certain conditions of ironmaking and steelmaking equipment, in order to increase production, enterprises will increase the iron content. The use of high grade ore further increases production. Of course, it is not absolute, but also consider the cost of coking, scrap and so on.
4. Supply side reform:
In the supply-side reform, Shandong Province has targeted the overcapacity of enterprises such as iron and steel, optimized the layout of state-owned capital, actively disposed of “zombie enterprises†and loss-making enterprises, and actively responded to the call for national policies to promote the “three offerings†of state-owned enterprises. The separation and handover work went smoothly, and the structural reforms have achieved remarkable results.
In 2016, Shandong reduced production capacity of 2.7 million tons of pig iron and 2.7 million tons of crude steel, including 1.5 million tons of blast furnace from Jinan Iron and Steel; in 2017, it will withdraw 3.87 million tons of pig iron and 2.8 million tons of crude steel, including the production capacity of Jigang's pig iron. 2.67 million tons, crude steel production capacity of 2.8 million tons.
In November 2016, the Shandong Provincial Government issued the overall plan for the capacity adjustment of Jinan Iron and Steel and the transformation and development of Shanshan Iron and Steel. It is determined that before the end of 2017, the steel production line of Jinan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. in Jinan will be discontinued.
In terms of personnel, the number of our employees has been decreasing, mainly due to the natural attrition. In addition, we are also committed to improving the production efficiency of steel per ton.
5 , floor steel and scrap
Shandong Province is a province with a large scale of strip steel. The provincial government attaches great importance to the clearing of production capacity of strip steel. At this stage, a working group should have been set up to review the localities. I don't know the exact scale and operation, but I can feel it: Shandong's efforts to rectify the strip steel are still very large, and it is still very determined.
The raw material for the production of strip steel is scrap steel, which is a direct substitute for iron ore. In terms of use, we mainly consider the cost performance, compare who is low price, see the benefit, and also measure the cost. If scrap is much cheaper, it will consume less ore and consume more scrap. If you have a good balance, you must calculate the price, but you must look at the price and look at other aspects. Scrap can be used for both long and short processes, and in fact long processes eat much more than normal processes. The long process output is there, and all the long process eats more scrap than the electric stove.
Using scrap steel to reduce production costs: ironmaking is a heating process, steelmaking is a heat-dissipating process, iron is hot, steel is cool, and scrap steel is directly added to molten iron. When molten iron is hot, steel is reduced and costs are reduced. The process of making molten iron uses coking coal, water and the like, and it is now cheaper.
6 , compared with private enterprises
In fact, since 2008, steel companies have made great efforts in operations management. Compared with private enterprises, the large-scale and technological advantages of state-owned enterprises are being reflected, and the cost disadvantage is gradually decreasing. Our advantages are: First, the equipment is large, and the equipment of private enterprises is not as good as us. The second point: we have complete supporting procedures and technical products have advantages; the third point, before the gap between labor costs and period expenses of private enterprises, This efficiency and the government's balanced policy, the gap between us and private enterprises is constantly narrowing.
7 , the price
Iron ore: oligopoly. The price of steel is turning around iron ore. The iron ore has been rising. The steel is restricted by iron ore. Due to the large number of steel mills, there is no way to negotiate. This is no way. Now that steel does not increase, iron ore is increasing, and prices are still rising. This is not normal, and the price should drop.
Coking coal: Signing a long association with a coal company, the price is not locked, revised once a month.
8 , financing
After the fundamentals of the steel industry improved, the bank’s attitude towards steel companies improved significantly, reflected in the increase in credit lines. Currently, our borrowings are based on the benchmark interest rate.
Shandong tire company (February 23 morning)
Chemical: Guo Min
1. Market situation
China is a global tire manufacturing country, accounting for 38% of global tire production in 2015, while Shandong's current tire production accounts for 50% of China's production. In 2007-2014, China's tire production capacity expanded rapidly, and production increased significantly. In 2014, China's tire production reached 1.1 billion. In 2015, the overall industry demand was sluggish and production declined negatively.
2 , raw materials
The price of raw materials has risen sharply and the cost of tires has risen significantly. There are many raw materials for tires, including natural rubber, synthetic rubber, carbon black, steel cord, cord fabric and so on. Among them, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, carbon black and steel cord are the four main raw materials. In the past six months, the price of natural rubber has increased by nearly 60%, the price of synthetic rubber has increased by more than 100%, the increase of steel cord is close to 30%, and the increase of carbon black is nearly 30%. Relative to raw materials, the price increase of tires generally lags 1-3 months. Due to the sharp increase in tire costs in the past six months, the whole industry has some pressure, but for small enterprises, the pressure will be greater, because the proportion of capital will be further Increase, the profit ratio will be further compressed.
3. Capital supply
Since the domestic tire production capacity is concentrated in Shandong, and the tires are relatively large in the capital chain, this will cause some regional enterprises to guarantee each other. Therefore, if there is a capital chain break, the scale impact will be relatively large. For the Shandong region, tires are a surplus industry, banks are more cautious lending, and some are not good to withdraw. Therefore, if the capital chain breaks, the tire production capacity will gradually withdraw, and this process will gradually lead to a gradual increase in industry concentration.
4 , downstream customer needs
At present, domestic tire companies can only be counted as the third echelon. The first echelon is the three major tire giants of Bridgestone, Michelin and Goodyear, accounting for more than one-third of the global market share. The second echelon is the United States, Japan, Germany. The tire manufacturers in France, the first two echelons occupy the majority of the supporting tire market of more than 100,000 yuan. As the third echelon, China's tire enterprises mainly produce semi-steel tires.
All steel tires are mainly used in trucks and buses. Since the third quarter of this year, the sales of all steel tires have been mainly due to the introduction of a new limited load policy. GB1589-2016 "Automobile, trailer and automobile train profile size, axle load and quality limit" made relevant regulations on the maximum load of heavy trucks. Overall, the capacity of bicycle heavy trucks decreased by about 15%, resulting in a large increase in demand for heavy trucks. Sales of all steel tires.
5 , capacity withdrawal
The tire industry's production capacity withdrawal mainly depends on the upgrading of products. As the number of years of use increases, the old equipment will gradually be eliminated and then exit the market. In particular, some equipment before 08/09 will gradually withdraw in this way, and it is also a form of mainstream in the future. The break of the capital chain, continuous losses, and the underground operating rate will also lead to the passive withdrawal of tire production capacity.
6 , profit situation
Overall, as the price of tires rises compared to raw materials, the price of tires such as rubber auxiliaries, including rubber auxiliaries, has been relatively high. Therefore, the profit in the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year will be affected. The overall profitability depends on the trend of raw materials in the future. If the price of raw materials stops rising in the future, then the price will be transmitted downstream along the tires, and the profitability will pick up.
An electrolytic aluminum enterprise in Shandong (February 23rd afternoon)
Colored: Zhao Xin
1. Change in electrolytic aluminum production capacity
In addition to the electrolytic aluminum production capacity under construction, the company has no expansion target. In 2016, the company's electrolytic aluminum production was 6 million tons, and in 2017 it is planned to be around 7 million tons.
2 , supply and demand
The demand for electrolytic aluminum mainly depends on China. The demand for electrolytic aluminum in China is still relatively high. In the past, the growth rate of demand was around 7%-8%, while the growth of output was around 3%, which was lower than the increase in demand.
3 , price and cost
The cost of electrolytic aluminum is mainly alumina, electricity and carbon.
From the point of view of electricity cost, compared with its peers, the company has obvious advantages in power cost. The company's electricity consumption per ton of aluminum is not much different from that of its peers. The main difference is that the company's own power plant has no network fee and the electricity price is low, but the coal price in 2016. The rise is obvious, the company's electricity costs have increased, and it is expected that the price of electricity will increase by about 1 cent. The increase in the cost of electricity will increase the cost of electrolytic aluminum to about 1,300 yuan. The company currently has two power plant projects under construction, and the future self-sufficiency rate will not increase. After the completion of the power plant, the self-sufficiency rate of electricity is less than 100%, and it is expected to reach 80%.
From the perspective of alumina, after the company's alumina project is fully put into operation, the alumina production capacity will reach 13 million tons, and the company's overseas mines can meet the company's 60% alumina production. The company's current self-produced alumina price is 1,800 yuan / ton (excluding tax), and the purchased alumina is 2,400 yuan / ton (including tax).
From the point of view of carbon, all the carbon used by the company was purchased.
4 , profit
At present, the company's electrolytic aluminum tonnage gross profit is about 2,000 yuan.
Shandong high-grade yarn-dyed fabric faucet (February 23 afternoon)
Textile clothing: Hu Xiangyu
1. The trend of upgrading the automation level of the textile industry has become very obvious in recent years: labor costs have risen sharply in recent years , with double-digit growth every year. In the past, 10% of the cost of yarn-dyed fabrics was labor cost, and now it has reached 20%. So in the past three to five years, the company has invested heavily in automation. For example, in the spinning section, the previous 10,000 spindles were used by 60-70 people, and now only 40 people are needed. Like the dyeing process, basically the entire production process does not require manual participation except for a few people in the monitoring room. But now it should be said that more than half of the production capacity is not highly automated, so the investment in production automation will continue in the next few years. But because of the investment in new equipment, the first is that technology takes time to verify, and the second is that the price of the equipment needs to be matured. So this process takes time. At present, there are still a small number of small factories in the whole industry. These factories are relatively unwilling to make large investments in equipment. But for us, it should be normal to keep the number of employees in the future.
2. The impact of stricter environmental protection requirements on the textile industry will continue: the textile industry itself has a large discharge, which has always been the focus of national environmental protection supervision. The environmental standards in Shandong Province are high in the country, but they are certainly not as good as those in Zhejiang. There are still a lot of textiles, and the sewage discharge of printing and dyeing enterprises is not up to standard. In the final analysis, the illegal cost of stealing and draining is very low. After the environmental protection tax is put to the ground, there must be a process of gradual handover, but in the end it will definitely increase the illegal cost of stealing and discharging. Like our investment in environmental protection has been great, but this cost is very high. For example, we are now using more than 40% of our water reuse. This is an environmentally responsible attitude, but the cost is still more than 30% higher than that of the water plant. Increasing the illegal cost of companies that illegally emit emissions is a good thing for companies like ours that have been investing in environmental protection.
3. The textile industry is shifting to Southeast Asia, but the high value-added links will remain in the country: we have been investing in Southeast Asia for 13 years, mainly considering export tariffs and labor costs. The wages of workers there are also one quarter of our domestic wages. However, three years have passed, and the efficiency of workers there can only reach 60% of the domestic level, and the product technology has not reached the domestic level. Therefore, the transfer of the industry to Southeast Asia is currently only a low value-added link. The main reason for the transfer now is the garment processing factory, because labor costs account for more than 90% of production costs. The transfer of yarns and fabrics with higher levels of technology has been very rare, especially in the fabric factory, which is basically ours.
Aluminium industry expert exchange minutes (February 22nd afternoon)
Colored: Zhao Xin
First, alumina
In 2016, the domestic alumina production capacity was 74.1 million tons, the output was 60.16 million tons, and the newly added capacity was 4.6 million tons. In the beginning of 2017, the amount of new additions in China is not small. Compared with the production in 2015 and 2016, the output of Shandong and Shanxi is increasing in 2016. Due to the shutdown of high-level enterprises in Henan, the output is declining, and Guangxi is also declining. Guizhou It is a growing trend.
From the perspective of alumina imports , the import volume in 2016 was 3.026 million tons, but the net import volume was 2.92 million tons. Compared with 2015, the decline was mainly due to the low price of alumina at the beginning of the year. demand. Coupled with the depreciation of the RMB, the cost of imports has increased. In the first half of 2016, imports have been in the status quo. Especially in April, the monthly import volume was only 103,000 tons, which is a historical low. After the price in the second half of the year, the import volume will recover.
Overall, in 2016, alumina was in a shortage pattern, with a shortage of about 1.66 million tons. In 2015, it was a surplus of 1.57 million tons. From the excess to the shortage of fundamentals, the price of alumina has risen sharply. It is estimated that there will be 66.5 million tons of alumina enterprises that can be put into production in 2017. The enterprises that have stopped production have all been restarted. At such a high price, the pace of capacity release is accelerated. From a quantitative perspective, the alumina market will shift from short-term to surplus. So in 2017, the fundamentals will not be as good as 2016. We expect the average alumina price in 2017 to be 2,350 yuan / ton. Although the cost will support the price, other environmental protection policies will bring certain uncertainty to the 2017 market. So in general, the 2017 fluctuation range is estimated to be between 2200 and 3000.
Second, electrolytic aluminum
Globally, the capacity of foreign electrolytic aluminum is declining in 2016, because some production capacity has been shut down, and the newly added capacity is determined to be 500,000 tons. The shutdown capacity is about 1.1 million tons, and the total foreign electrolytic aluminum production capacity. In 16 years, it is in a downward trend; from the perspective of production, it is still growing. The growing regions are mainly concentrated in Asia and Europe. We estimate that the output of electrolytic aluminum in foreign countries is about 27 million tons, an increase of 2.7%.
At present, electrolytic aluminum is gradually shifting to places where energy is concentrated. The regional industries that lack the advantages of electrolytic aluminum are also being eliminated. In 2016, the total production capacity was 550,000 tons, concentrated in Henan and Sichuan, with an additional production of 4.15 million tons. The production time is roughly in the second half of the year, and the scale is relatively large, mainly concentrated in Shandong, Xinjiang, and Guangxi. In 2016, the overall output was 32.65 million tons, an increase of 6.65% over the previous year, and the growth was slowing down.
From the perspective of inventory, compared with the data of the past few years, the accumulated inventory in 2016 is always lower than in previous years, especially at the end of 2016, the inventory of aluminum may be only about 300,000 to 400,000 tons. After he entered 2017, due to the situation of entering the low season of consumption, coupled with the improvement of transportation conditions, after the products of Xinjiang were shipped out, there was a rapid increase in aluminum inventories, which was similar to that in previous years, but due to the increase in China’s consumption base. The number of days that can be consumed is 10 days, which is lower than the same period in previous years.
From the perspective of consumption of electrolytic aluminum, the growth rate of electrolytic aluminum consumption in 2016 is steadily slowing down, but it is still a high-speed growth compared with other countries. The consumption in 2016 was 32.8 million tons, an increase of 8.2% over the previous year. Mainly 8 consumer sectors, building structure 32.3%, growth rate 5-7.8%; electronic power 15-16%, growth rate 15%; transportation 12.7%, growth rate 9%; other including durable goods and mechanical packaging A certain increase, but affected by the domestic and international situation, the reduction of aluminum exports, to a certain extent, has affected domestic consumption, but in general, the performance of electrolytic aluminum in 2016 is still good.
According to the 2016 data, a balance between supply and demand has been made. China has a shortfall of 120,000 tons and a shortage of 1.13 million tons outside China. China has undergone a transition from surplus to shortage. With the rapid increase in supply after 2017, supply pressure will be the main contradiction in the market. In 2016, the prices of bulk commodity raw materials all rose, so the corresponding cost of electrolytic aluminum also experienced a continuous decline in 2013 and then rebounded in 2016. The cost of the electrolytic aluminum industry in 2016 was 11,640 yuan / ton, a decrease of 10% over 15 years. At present, the cost of China's electrolytic aluminum is less than 10,000 yuan in Shandong, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi and other places. The local resources are very advantageous. Typical cities like Shaanxi Yulin and Inner Mongolia Baotou have obvious cost advantages. Now that the cash cost is above 12,000, it is located in Gansu, Qinghai, Henan. Although the price is good now, the profits of these enterprises are very narrow, and there are relatively big challenges in the future production and operation.
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