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This article first appeared on WeChat public number: wind. The content of the article belongs to the author's personal opinion and does not represent the position of Hexun.com. Investors should act accordingly, at their own risk.
(Original title: The central bank did not conduct open market operations on Thursday, carrying out 298 billion MLF operations)
Hong Kong's Wind InfoCom reported that on Thursday (September 7th), on September 7, the MLF operation was 298 billion yuan, and there was no reverse repurchase operation.
The central bank opened the market on Wednesday for 20 billion 7 days and 20 billion 28 days of reverse repurchase operations. On the same day, 160 billion reverse repurchase expired, and the net return was 120 billion. Traders analyzed that although the funds remained accommodative in the past two days, the cross-month and longer-term fund interest rates continued to rise, indicating that the market funds were not expected to be changed cautiously; the MPA assessment in the third quarter was just around the corner, and the central bank restarted for 28 days in the past three months. The reverse repurchase is conducive to the market's smooth cross-assessment. Wind information statistics show that the last 28 days of reverse repurchase operations was on June 19.
Deng Haiqing, chief global economist of Kyushu Securities, believes that the central bank restarted the 28-day reverse repurchase operation, which has been more than two months since the last June 19, and the 28-day reverse repurchase is in line with the market's cross-season demand, reflecting the central bank. Clear intention to maintain stability. At present, the time is already approaching mid-September. Since September is just at the end of the season, the funds are sensitive, and the deadline is just for the market to use across the season to prevent the market from being too tight, which reflects the central bank. The attitude of maintaining market capital is clear.
China Merchants Macro said that the impact of the MPA assessment in September was limited, and the overall LCR assessment was stress-free; the fiscal investment in September was slightly weaker than the end of the first half of the year, but still higher than the historical period; the pressure on government bond issuance in September is relatively large, and the foreign exchange account is relatively The liquidity supplement is limited; the interim maturity of September deposits is as high as 2.3 trillion yuan, a record high, which will have a certain impact on liquidity; considering that the central bank has always treated the bank's quarter-end assessment carefully, and the 19th National Congress is just around the corner, financial The system is stable and it is expected that the liquidity will be stable in September, although it is not dangerous.
According to the China Securities Journal, despite the continuous withdrawal of the central bank, the funds in the beginning of September are still relatively loose. However, in September, liquidity supply and demand faced many disturbance factors. In addition to the end-of-season assessment, more than 2 trillion yuan of interbank deposit certificates will expire, and the excess reserve ratio may be lower than that of June. Obstruction, the impact of the tax period will rise again next week, and liquidity will fluctuate or increase again.
CITIC Securities 600030, the stock team clearly believes that in the context of tight funding and fundamental contradictions, the financing cost of the private economy is at a historically high level, and the problem of “funding difficulties†has once again become the risk of economic recovery after two years. As the economic downside risks gradually emerged, monetary policy increasingly needs to maintain a marginal looseness, insisting that the top ten-year bond yields are 3.6%.
Haitong Macro Jiang Chao said that in September, it will usher in the end of the season MPA assessment and 2.3 trillion CD expiration, and the funds are worried about a new situation. It is expected that the central bank will increase its efforts at the end of the quarter, and bank deposit slips will be issued in a rolling manner. In the third quarter, MPA pressure will be less than that in the first half of the year. September will be the fiscal release month. The RMB will continue to appreciate and improve the capital outflow. The funds may be more than expected. Loose.
For the liquidity in September, the Yangtze River consolidation believes or maintains a tight balance. The Yangtze River consolidated receipts said that the expiration of the interbank deposit receipts reached a record high in September, and it also faced the impact of the MPA assessment and the Fed FOMC meeting. Compared with the end of the first two quarters, the liquidity environment in September should not be too worried or too high. Money will continue to “cut the peaks and fill the valley†and keep the liquidity of the banking system basically stable. Liquidity management or a tight balance is still needed.
The central bank announced on September 1 that the SLF operation for financial institutions in August totaled 34.04 billion yuan, including 2.803 billion yuan overnight, 27.27 billion yuan for 7 days, and 8.53 billion yuan for one month. The MLF operation in August was 399.5 billion yuan. In 1 year, the interest rate was 3.2%; in August, the net increase in mortgage loans to the three policy banks totaled 34.7 billion yuan.
A new regulation on the liquidity of public funds has been released recently, and three dimensions have strengthened the control of money funds. Including the size of the money market fund and its risk reserve, control the disorderly growth of scale; distinguish between institutional and retail money market funds, implement product classification supervision according to the concentration of share holders; set the money market fund than ordinary public offering The fund has stricter liquidity indicator limits. Traders said that on the exchange agreement repo platform, the money fund is a very important funder. The new rules put forward higher conditions for borrowers, which will undoubtedly increase the difficulty of financing in the future. Fortunately, today's funds are still available, and there is still time to go into effect. The immediate impact is not obvious.
According to Xu Hanfei, the new rules will help prevent systemic risks and promote the return of the goods to the source of liquidity and long-term healthy development. The scale and leverage level of the cargo base will decline, which will have a certain tightening effect on the market (income effect); the demand for high credit qualification and high liquidity assets will increase marginally (substitute effect). Since the regulation has set a six-month buffer period for the new cargo-based plan, the relevant agencies will have sufficient time to adjust in the future, and the market will not be violently impacted by the new regulations.
The central bank issued a new regulation on August 31. From September 1st, financial institutions may not issue new interbank deposit receipts with a maturity of more than one year (excluding). The previously issued one-year (excluding) interbank deposit certificates may continue to exist. period. Sun Guofeng, director of the Central Bank's Financial Research Institute, said that the central bank's inter-bank deposit receipts are clearly no more than one year, which is conducive to appropriately shortening the inter-bank deposit receipt business period, prompting the inter-bank deposit receipts to return to the essential attributes of the internal funds remaining in the financial system, and avoiding the long-term financial resources. The circulation within the financial system and the strengthening of financial support for the real economy have little impact on the interbank deposit-taking market.
According to the investment consolidation, in general, due to the small balance and circulation of long-term insurance deposits, the central bank’s ban on deposit certificates for more than one year will not have a big impact on the market. Looking back, the “arbitrage space†will be compressed, and the interbank deposit certificate will return to its original purpose of liquidity management.
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