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Gold Rush Interim Report
During the period of slow economic growth, residents' consumption rigidity and consumption upgrading have provided space for the development of the consumer industry, and the big consumer industry has quietly emerged in this context. Analysts interviewed by the "Financial Investment News" reporter believe that in the A-share market, the performance of the middle-level molecular industry in the large-capital sector is expected to outperform, and the performance is expected to outperform the market. Among them, the investment potential of food and beverage and tourist hotels is worthy of attention.
Food and Beverage: Three main lines of fund allocation upgrade layout
The food and beverage sector, which is attractive for capital, is once again the target of institutional favor and chase. The "Financial Investment News" reporter saw from the data of the 2016 mid-year report released by the fund recently that the consumer blue-chips represented by Maotai (600519, stocks), Yili, Wuliangye (000858, shares) are favored by the fund. Among the fund allocation targets, Maotai ranked second, Yili ranked fifth, and Wuliangye ranked eleventh. Some analysts believe that although the relative income of food and beverage in the first half of this year is significant, the overall sector is still in a low-matching state. Under the background of the growth of the capital style from growth to stability, the industry still has room for further configuration.
First-line liquor has the strongest growth
From a fundamental point of view, the liquor sector is considered to have certain advantages in terms of industry trends and cycles. Changjiang Securities (000783, stock bar) analyst Liu Yan said that he is optimistic about the second wave of opportunities in the liquor sector. "First, we believe that this round of liquor market should be interpreted from the independent market of Maotai as a sustainable market for the whole sector. We need the relay of liquor companies outside Maotai. We are optimistic that Wuliangye and 1573 will go up after the stocking of the peak season in mid-August. The market will confirm that the current cycle of liquor has really come. Secondly, from the perspective of capital allocation, the fund's mid-term report shows that the proportion of food and beverage and liquor sectors has increased significantly, but the proportion of this allocation is still at a higher proportion than its market capitalization. In the low-standard or standard state, in the context of the overall market style from growth to robust switching, we believe that the sector is worth over-matching. Compared to the historical average allocation ratio of 6%-7%, the current sector is 2.4% (1.5% white liquor) ) The configuration ratio still has a large room for improvement."
According to the analysis of the forward-looking perspective of Zhongtai Securities, Hu Yanchao believes that the performance of high-end liquor is the most certain, and the liquor sector has accelerated in the second quarter. “At the current time, we believe that the industry differentiation trend is becoming more and more obvious. The performance of Golden Seed is significantly lower than expected, and the market is wary of the risk of third-line liquor performance. The first-line liquor has the strongest certainty, and the peak season Maotai will continue to exceed expectations. It is recommended to recommend Kweichow Moutai (600519, stock bar), Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao (000568, shares it)," he said.
The downturn in meat products has passed
In addition to liquor, the Financial Investment News reporter found that other segments of the food and beverage industry have also received attention and optimism from analysts. Ma Haobo, an analyst at Soochow Securities (601555), said that the dairy industry's demand recovery, structural upgrades, milk prices stabilized, and promotion improvements, it is recommended that the current price exceeds the dairy industry. Yili is recommended, the product structure is upgraded, the leading advantage is more prominent, the competition is slowed down and the milk price is stabilized, and the expense ratio brought about by the active and passive promotion is reduced. In terms of meat products, it is recommended to open positions in succession. The worst time in the industry has passed. The big-cycle pig price has entered the down channel. The trillions of industry double-equivalent oligarchy monopoly, the market value is expected to exceed 100 billion, and the layout will continue. Shanghai Meilin will become or become a future. Beef faucet in East China and even the whole country.
Hu Yanchao believes that in the macro background of continued sluggish consumption, the pressure on the second quarter of the public goods is generally large, showing the characteristics of the squeeze-type growth of leading enterprises, focusing on the recommended sub-industry leading Yili shares (600887, shares) and Shuanghui Development ( 000895, shares it); Shanghai Meilin, the beef label that meets the trend of consumption upgrade, Hualian Mining (600882, shares); and potential interim report over the expected varieties Dongjia Ejiao (000423, shares it) and Jinhe Industry (002597, Share it).
From the overall perspective of the food and beverage industry, Northeastern Securities (000686, stock bar) analyst Li Qiang suggested to do three main line layout: 1, it is recommended to pay attention to the high performance of the mid-year report, the valuation is still in a reasonable range of first-line liquor, pay attention to Guizhou Maotai, Wuliangye , Luzhou Laojiao. 2, low-value, strong performance-determined food leader, pay attention to Qiaqi Food (002557, stock bar). 3, in the high-speed growth of the sub-industry leader, pay attention to Tao Li bread (603866, shares it), Aipu shares (603020, shares it).
Potential stock selection
Kweichow Moutai: shipments in the second quarter exceeded expectations
China Merchants Securities (600999, stock bar) analyst Dong Guangyang said that Guizhou Maotai completed shipments of more than 5,000 tons in the second quarter of 2016, exceeding market expectations, it is expected that the semi-annual report is expected to continue the trend of the first quarter, but the advance receipts and cash flow indicators are still beautiful. In the second half of the year, the approval price rose more than expected. If we insist on 8,000 tons, it will be difficult to find a wine.
Looking forward to the liquor sector, the mid-year report is expected to be disclosed at the end of August, and the overall compliance with market expectations, Maotai approval will become a greater catalyst. In this process, the liquor sector will present a pulse up market, each time Moutai's rating exceeds expectations or disclose shipment business data, all are plate catalysts, OTC funds pay close attention to the opportunity to enter, continue to hold the liquor sector, Maotai logic most Shun, the callback is not easy, and the platform period is a good opportunity to buy.
Wuliangye: The price increase window is expected to come again
Liu Yan, an analyst at Changjiang Securities, believes that due to the relatively small volume of Guojiao 1573, in fact, the high-end liquor industry has achieved a duopoly pattern; and because the supply of Maotai in the second half of the year is only 8,000 tons, there is a clear gap between supply and demand in the high season liquor in the peak season. As a fragrant faucet, Wuliangye will become the most direct beneficiary of Maotai's control.
With the gradual advancement of Maotai's approval price, Wuliangye may further push up the price by raising the ex-factory price, narrowing the price gap with Maotai, and its price increase window may come again. Overall, the medium and long-term optimistic about corporate governance mechanisms, endogenous superposition extension is expected to promote the company's growth.
Luzhou Laojiao: 1573 quantity and price increase
Citic Fellows analyst Huang Fusheng said that Guojiao 1573's price hikes tend to be the trend, while Luzhou Laojiao announced at the end of June that it will price the year of the 1573 vintage, which will also help to raise the price and brand height of the 1573 series. With the coming of the second half of the festival day, 1573 is expected to show a momentum of growth in both volume and price.
Huang Fusheng believes that the strategy of Luzhou Laojiao single product is remarkable. In the first half of the year, the three major product lines have achieved high growth. The new management team has implemented the “three major brand lines and five super-single items†since the last year. . In the first half of this year, in addition to the high sales growth of 1573, special music hit a record high in sales, and annual sales are expected to reach 2.1 billion yuan; the age-old wine company also achieved the highest year-on-year growth since its listing.
Shanghai Meilin: bigger and stronger meat business
Shanghai Meilin announced earlier that it plans to acquire a 50% stake in SFF. Wei Li, an analyst at Guojin Securities, said that SFF is New Zealand's largest meat processing company with an annual beef production of about 155,000 tons and a slaughter of 1.2 million. head. If 12% of beef is exported to China according to the proportion of exports in 2014, Merlin has at least about 19,000 tons of beef imports.
The company will further improve the coverage of the whole industry chain of beef from raw materials to channels. It is still expected to benefit from the pig cycle in the next 6 months. The pig breeding business still contributes a large part of the profit, which can be expected in the medium and long term. Merlin successfully built the SFF imported beef brand, grafted the existing East China market channels, and expanded its market share. At the same time, it actively improved the structure of SFF's cattle products and brought further improvement in profit margins.
Yili shares: the first to benefit the industry recovery
Citic Huang Fusheng, an analyst at CITIC Construction, believes that the decline in international raw milk supply is superimposed on 80% of the free-range dairy farmers in China, and the pressure on raw milk supply is reduced. Economic moderate inflation + dairy product upgrade + second-child policy is landing, demand is increasing significantly in the future. . Factors such as supply and demand improvement will enable the dairy industry to usher in the performance turning point in the second half of the year and enter the rebound stage of the industry's high-speed recovery. It is expected to reach the peak of industry performance in the first quarter of next year.
Huang Fusheng believes that Yili has a clear position as a liquid milk faucet, and high-end products are exerted. The annual sales growth is expected. The company's advantages in brand promotion, product development, and channel construction will take the lead in benefiting from industry recovery.
Tourism sector: strong growth momentum, multi-angle selection
The tourism industry is also considered to be a major area with good development prospects and investment potential in the large consumer sector. The "Financial Investment News" reporter noted that at present, the industry has entered the golden age - in 2015, China's domestic tourism exceeded 4 billion people, the national per capita tourism cost was 854.86 yuan, tourism revenue exceeded 4 trillion yuan, the average annual income of the past 5 years The compound growth rate is up to 20%. In 2015, the number of outbound tourism for domestic residents was 120 million, which is nearly double the growth in 2011. China's domestic and outbound tourism ranks first in the world in terms of consumption and consumption.
Policy support against the trend of rapid growth
Zhang Xiaochun, an analyst at Guolian Securities, believes that the long-term growth momentum of the tourism industry is strong. In recent years, although the economic growth rate has declined, the service industry represented by tourism has grown rapidly against the trend. The driving force behind this growth is mainly from: 1. Consumption upgrade. 2. The integration of industries promotes the development of the tourism industry. 3. The policy support is great. At present, 31 provinces and municipalities across the country have positioned tourism as a pillar industry, a leading industry, a leading industry or a leading industry. The government’s emphasis on the industry has reached an unprecedented height.
In fact, in the first half of 2016, the tourism industry experienced a process of continuous release of national policies. The "Financial Investment News" reporter found that in the first half of this year, the state issued important policies for multi-disciplinary tourism industry, helping the tourism industry to change from sightseeing to global tourism. This transformation includes the transition from the construction of a single scenic spot to the coordinated development of a comprehensive destination, from the ticket economy to the industrial economy. Vigorously arrange sub-divisional tourism sectors such as rural tourism, health tourism and sports tourism, and develop tourism opportunities from various angles.
Zhang Xiaochun believes that the industry is facing multiple catalysis in the short term, and the sector has already welcomed the opportunity. There are three main aspects of short-term catalysis in the industry: 1. The Shanghai Disneyland has a summer effect. 2. The stock price and fundamental mismatch of the leisure service industry are among the top in all industries. Under the industry's rotation market, the market may start at any time. 3. In the second half of the year, the reform of state-owned enterprises accelerated. The listed companies in the industry are mainly state-owned enterprises. As a competitive industry, the reform of state-owned enterprises is expected to sail first. Recently, the strategic restructuring plan of China International Travel Service (Hong Kong China Travel Service) and Hong Kong China Travel Service is a sign.
The pace of reform of state-owned enterprises has accelerated
From the perspective of investment opportunities, GF Securities analysts said that in the second half of the year, Disney opened the park to bring significant passenger flow increase in the surrounding scenic spots. The outbound travels were weakened by the impact of the pound sterling euro depreciation, fingerprint visas, and terrorist attacks. Factors such as the boom in Southeast Asia are also expected to accelerate significantly. Coupled with the advancement of state-owned enterprise reforms and the rapid growth of surrounding tourism, the tourism sector is expected to achieve relative returns.
Although the current dynamic PE of the sector has reached an average of about 38 times, it still has an advantage over overseas and other consumer goods industry valuations. In particular, the industry has performed well in the third quarter, with an average relative income of 12% in 2010-2015. From the perspective of investment opportunities, Anpeng recommended the preferred low valuation leader: Songcheng Tourism, Caesar Tourism (000796, stocks) and China Youth Travel Service (600138, shares it); and pay attention to outbound travel news (002707, shares it)), state-owned enterprises reform Huangshan Tourism (600054, shares it), Yunnan Tourism (002059, shares it), Zhangjiajie (000430, shares it), theme parks (Haichang Ocean Park, Dalian Shengya (600593, shares it)) and the surrounding tour three cableway (002159, shares it) ) and other topics.
Changchun Securities analyst Xu Chun suggested that the three main lines in the second half of the year: 1. Steady scenic spot stocks, recommended to benefit from traffic improvement and layout of the low-value natural scenic spots in the ancient town of Huangshan Tourism, Zhangjiajie, Emeishan A, and the accelerated replication of off-site projects Scenic Songcheng Performing Arts (300144, shares it) and China Youth Travel. 2. Deterministic high-growth stocks, recommending outbound travel lines, Zhongxin Travel, Caesars Travel, Tenbon International (300178, stocks) (increase capital and leisure holidays and entry into the entry and exit market) and create the “Tianye Pastoral†brand Cableway. 3, the theme of investment opportunities, it is recommended to pay attention to sports tourism related shares of the National Tourism Association (600358, shares it) and state-owned enterprise reform related shares Lingnan Holdings (000524, shares it), Jinling Hotel (601007, shares it).
Potential stock selection
Zhongxin Tourism: Focus on International Education
In 2016, Zhongxin Travel plans to use the method of issuing shares and paying cash to purchase Huayuan International Travel Service at a price of 2.6 billion yuan. After the transaction is completed, the company's share of the European outbound travel market will exceed 60%, ranking first in the European market. In addition, Ctrip will become a shareholder of the company, the company will cooperate with Ctrip in depth to consolidate the leading position of outbound tourism wholesale.
Zhang Yi, an analyst at Soochow Securities, believes that the synergy between the various platform businesses in the future will further strengthen the company's core competitiveness. The international education sector is the focus of the current layout, and the scale of M&A targets may exceed expectations.
Huangshan Tourism: Continue to enjoy high-speed rail dividends
Huangshan Tourism has gathered a variety of strong IP, and has formed a complete tourism industry chain of “eat, live, travel, entertainment, travel and purchaseâ€. Some brokerages believe that the new leadership team of the company actively promotes the industrial upgrading of enterprises, deepens the reform of the system, and firmly implements the strategy of “going down the mountain and going globalâ€, and the business operation continues to improve. At the same time, the company continued to enjoy the high-speed rail dividend, the first anniversary of the completion of the high-speed railway, and the average daily delivery of passengers 10,000 times. It is expected that the opening of high-speed railway lines such as Huanghang in 2017 will continue to increase the number of tourists along the city.
In the second quarter, due to the impact of El Niño, although the monthly passenger flow decreased, the tourists entering the mountain in the first half of the year still showed a growth trend. It is expected that the tourists in the first half of the year will increase by about 8.5% compared with the same period of last year. With the end of Mei Ji and the arrival of the tourist season, passenger flow will be released in the second half of the year.
Songcheng Performing Arts: Endogenous growth is still strong
In the first half of this year, Songcheng Performing Arts Theme Park held creative activities including the high-end year-end awards for tourists, the flower festival, the Hanfu adult ceremony, the thousand King Kong Barbie crossing, the beauty and the beast, and the big show A4 waist in the flower. It earned a high popularity and attracted a large number of tourists.
Analyst of BOC International Securities believes that the endogenous growth of the series is still strong, and the follow-up project reserves are sufficient (Shanghai + Guilin + Zhangjiajie + Tanheli) and the volume is larger. It is expected to contribute to the increase in performance from 2017. The data and profitability of the six rooms continued to improve. Overall, the company is expected to continue the high growth path, and the current average annual growth rate of the existing business in the next five years is expected to remain above 30%. Recently, overseas strategic expansion and VR projects have been continuously promoted, and the follow-up of the multi-cultural entertainment layout has been more prosperous.
CYTS: More performances rebounded
GF Securities analyst An Peng said that in 2015, CYTS's scenic business net profit accounted for 91%, benefiting from Disney's spillover traffic, Wuzhen brand culture attraction, passenger traffic will maintain medium-to-high-speed growth, and Wucun project started to operate. To enhance the ability of passenger traffic to be realized, it is expected that Wuzhen Scenic Area will support the company's performance return to growth channel. Since Gubei Water Town achieved profitability in 2015, passenger flow and revenue have continued to exceed expectations, and it is expected to grow rapidly into an important performance driver.
In terms of integrated marketing business, with the deep accumulation of exhibition companies in the field of corporate exhibition services, horizontal expansion of public relations communications, sports marketing and Expo operation services, gross profit margin and profitability are expected to continue to improve. In addition, the company's Wuzhen and Gubei Shuizhen scenic spots have been successfully operated, and the company is expected to gradually test the light asset business model such as management and output of water scenic spots.
Three Special Cableway: Transforming to a Holiday Destination
Zhang Jin, an analyst at Guojin Securities, believes that the three special ropeway is a private scenic spot enterprise with a scarce national reserve of A shares and the ability to expand its ability in different places. It has abundant scenic resources reserves in the second and third tier cities and surrounding areas across the country. Through the "operating a batch, building a batch, and storing a batch", the development of the scenic spot business will be carried out.
The company's main business grows steadily. At the same time, under the trend of the tourism environment changing from sightseeing to holiday, it is also actively seeking transformation and development. Zhang Bin is optimistic about the company's transformation from the ropeway operator to the development and management of the holiday destination.
Gold stock pool
Guizhou Maotai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Haimeilin, Yili, Zhongxin Tourism, Mountain Tourism, Songcheng Performing Arts, China Youth Travel, Sante Cableway
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